UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jun 2023
Flyweight
VS
42%
Flick
58%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:03
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
This is a genuine toss-up — Flick at 42% vs Costa at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Flick's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Flick
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
67"
35
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Flick
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
62.9
44.4
Performance Avg
53.0
52
Quality of Victory
55
20
Momentum Score
85
Flick
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
59%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
10
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground10
Flick
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Flick
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/26 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Flick
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Flick
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Flick
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
FlickCosta
Strike Zones
Flick
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedCosta
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (91% of attacks) — Flick absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Flick
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Flick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Flick · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Matt SchnellRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Nate ManessRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · Sub · R2
Malcolm GordonRating 5.2Submission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
L · KO · R1
Charles JohnsonRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R2
Jimmy FlickRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06