UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Bantamweight
VS
26%
Moraes
74%
Dvalishvili
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:25
MM
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23 – 10
5'6"67" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
Merab
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
21 – 5
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Moraes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Dvalishvili has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Moraes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moraes
Dvalishvili
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+68"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Dvalishvili
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
60.4
47.3
Performance Avg
53.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
20
Momentum Score
100
Moraes
Dvalishvili
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
33
0
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground37
Moraes
Dvalishvili
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraes
Dvalishvili
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
84
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/33 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Moraes
Dvalishvili
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Moraes
Dvalishvili
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
14%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moraes
Dvalishvili
Striking4.9 / 2.4Volume4.1 / 8.5Grappling2.6 / 2.6Wrestling1.8 / 1.8Submission2.0 / 0.7Pressure5.6 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Moraes
Strike Zones
Dvalishvili
Moraes
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
33HEAD5BODY0LEGS38 absorbed
Dvalishvili
Attacking
33HEAD5BODY0LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dvalishvili targets the head (87% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moraes
RND
Dvalishvili
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L4.5W6.0W5.0W5.0W4.2L5.0W3.6L2.7L4.0L2.8L2017-062018-062019-122021-092022-03
WinLossTrend

Dvalishvili · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L4.7L4.5W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W6.0W6.0W6.0W5.8W6.8W6.0W7.0L2017-122020-062023-032025-102025-12
WinLossTrend

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Merab DvalishviliRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · KO · R1
Rob FontRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12

Dvalishvili · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Umar NurmagomedovRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 6
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Marlon Moraes · Merab Dvalishvili
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