UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Curitiba, Brazil
14 May 2016
Welterweight
VS
52%
Moraes
48%
Chagas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SM
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14 – 6
6'0"72" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
LC
Luan Chagas
"Tarzan"
15 – 3
Submission Hunter32 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moraes

This is a genuine toss-up — Moraes at 52% vs Chagas at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Chagas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Chagas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Moraes's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Chagas has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Moraes
Chagas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+75"
43
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Chagas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
17.3
47.0
Performance Avg
43.0
37
Quality of Victory
50
95
Momentum Score
43
Moraes
Chagas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
2
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
4Ground2
Moraes
Chagas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moraes
Chagas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Moraes
Chagas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
Upcoming
Moraes
Chagas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moraes
Chagas
Striking2.5 / 0.7Volume5.2 / 0.7Grappling4.2 / 8.0Wrestling2.9 / 5.6Submission3.8 / 10.0Pressure5.3 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Moraes
Strike Zones
Chagas
Moraes
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Chagas
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Moraes targets the head (71% of attacks) — Chagas absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Chagas targets the head (40% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moraes
RND
Chagas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W2.6L4.6W5.2W5.5L4.2L4.0L2012-062015-122018-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Chagas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.0L5.2W2.8L2016-092017-062018-04
WinLossTrend

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R3
James KrauseRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

Chagas · Last 4

L · KO · R2
Siyar BahadurzadaRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Sub · R2
Jim WallheadRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Sub · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
Upcoming
Sergio Moraes
Decision
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Sergio Moraes · Luan Chagas
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