UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Lightweight
VS
44%
Barboza
56%
Klose
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Klose
This is a genuine toss-up — Barboza at 44% vs Klose at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Klose has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barboza's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Klose has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barboza
Klose
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
70"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barboza
Klose
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.9
56.0
46.3
Performance Avg
49.7
40
Quality of Victory
32
60
Momentum Score
99
Barboza
Klose
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
9 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
8
9
Body
2
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
25Distance11
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Barboza
Klose
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barboza
Klose
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/38 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Barboza
Klose
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
99
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Barboza
Klose
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
9
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barboza
Klose
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
BarbozaKlose
Strike Zones
Barboza
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedKlose
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barboza targets the head (52% of attacks) — Klose absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Klose targets the head (62% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barboza
RND
Klose
0/0R00/0
Barboza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Klose · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Barboza · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Klose · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 5.1Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · KO · R1
Joe SoleckiRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 5.3Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07

