UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Belem, Brazil
3 Feb 2018
Middleweight
VS
36%
Santos
64%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:03
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Santos has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
76"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
58.3
54.0
Performance Avg
50.7
51
Quality of Victory
50
91
Momentum Score
100
Santos
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
52%
9.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
11 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
1
2
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
15Ground0
Santos
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/33 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Santos
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Santos
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
79%
77%
11
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
SantosSmith
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSmith
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (79% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (100% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12