★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Las Vegas, USA
29 Jun 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Pereira
47%
Prochazka
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pereira
This is a genuine toss-up — Pereira at 53% vs Prochazka at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Prochazka throws more volume but Pereira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Prochazka has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pereira
Prochazka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
79"
Reach
+80"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pereira
Prochazka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.5
68.4
76.4
Performance Avg
60.9
72
Quality of Victory
57
78
Momentum Score
98
Pereira
Prochazka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.5
68%
Strike Accuracy
64%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.7
8 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Pereira
Prochazka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pereira
Prochazka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
34
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
9/38 fights
Pereira
Prochazka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
98
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Pereira
Prochazka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pereira
Prochazka
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
PereiraProchazka
Strike Zones
Pereira
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedProchazka
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pereira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Prochazka absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pereira
RND
Prochazka
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pereira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Prochazka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Pereira · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
Prochazka · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R3
Jamahal HillRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
L · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04