UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
19 Mar 2022
Welterweight
VS
60%
Nelson
40%
Sato
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Sato has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sato has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Sato throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sato has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Sato
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
37
Age
+35
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Nelson
Sato
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
38.3
52.8
Performance Avg
45.9
46
Quality of Victory
58
61
Momentum Score
46
Nelson
Sato
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
69%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
1Clinch0
6Ground0
Nelson
Sato
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Sato
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
7/23 fights
Nelson
Sato
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
46
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Sato
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
8
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Sato
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
NelsonSato
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSato
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (75% of attacks) — Sato absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Sato targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Sato
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Sato · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Sato · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Bryan BattleRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Sub · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
W · KO · R1
Jason WittRating 5KO/TKO
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