UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2008
Lightweight
VS
46%
Buchholz
54%
Hill
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:57
JB
Justin Buchholz
15 – 10
6'0"73" reachOrthodox42 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 16
CH
Corey Hill
6 – 9
Knockout Artist2-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hill

This is a genuine toss-up — Buchholz at 46% vs Hill at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hill has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Buchholz
Hill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+80"
42+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Buchholz
Hill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
18.8
37.7
Performance Avg
46.3
50
Quality of Victory
55
33
Momentum Score
52
Buchholz
Hill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
28%
Strike Accuracy
57%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
8
6
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance8
7Clinch2
0Ground0
Buchholz
Hill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Buchholz
Hill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/25 fights
Chin rating based on
3/15 fights
Buchholz
Hill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Buchholz
Hill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Buchholz
Hill
Striking0.4 / 10.0Volume0.4 / 0.7Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Buchholz
Strike Zones
Hill
Buchholz
Attacking
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Hill
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Buchholz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Hill absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Hill targets the head (80% of attacks) — Buchholz absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Buchholz
RND
Hill
0/0R00/0

Buchholz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0101.5L5.2W2.8L4.5L5.5L2008-012008-072009-062009-092010-02
WinLossTrend

Hill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0105.2W2.8L2.8L2008-012008-072008-12
WinLossTrend

Buchholz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mac DanzigRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 4.5
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09
L · Sub · R2
Terry EtimRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
W · Sub · R2
Corey HillRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
L · Sub · R1
Matt WimanRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman · 2008-01

Hill · Last 3

L · KO · R2
Dale HarttRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night - Fight for the Troops · 2008-12
L · Sub · R2
Justin BuchholzRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · KO · R2
Joe VeresRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swick vs Burkman · 2008-01

News & Media

Justin Buchholz · Corey Hill
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