UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Bantamweight
VS
28%
Lopez
72%
Perez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
Perez is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Perez throws more volume but Lopez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lopez's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Perez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lopez
Perez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
67"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lopez
Perez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
35.4
38.8
Performance Avg
56.3
43
Quality of Victory
49
33
Momentum Score
100
Lopez
Perez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
24
4
Body
8
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
12Distance33
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Lopez
Perez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lopez
Perez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
62
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/14 fights
Chin rating based on
13/32 fights
Lopez
Perez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lopez
Perez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lopez
Perez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
LopezPerez
Strike Zones
Lopez
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedPerez
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lopez targets the head (62% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Perez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lopez
RND
Perez
0/0R00/0
Lopez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Lopez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 5.9Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny EduardoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Mitch GagnonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
Perez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
W · Sub · R2
Johnny EduardoRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07