UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
24%
Alvarez
76%
Poirier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:05
EA
Eddie Alvarez
29 – 6
5'9"69" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

Poirier is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Alvarez throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alvarez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alvarez
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alvarez
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
61.4
52.9
Performance Avg
58.2
50
Quality of Victory
50
66
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
31
1
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance28
0Clinch6
4Ground0
Alvarez
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Alvarez
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Alvarez
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alvarez
Poirier
Striking6.1 / 6.0Volume5.1 / 4.0Grappling1.2 / 2.2Wrestling0.8 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 1.8Pressure5.2 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Alvarez
Strike Zones
Poirier
Alvarez
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD3BODY0LEGS34 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
31HEAD3BODY0LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (63% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (91% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alvarez
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.1L7.1W3.4L2014-092016-012016-112018-07
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin Poirier
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Eddie Alvarez · Dustin Poirier
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