METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
24%
Alvarez
76%
Poirier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:05
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:05
def. Eddie Alvarez · UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Poirier
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Poirier is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvarezPoirier
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alvarez
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alvarez
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
61.4
52.9
Performance Avg
58.2
50
Quality of Victory
50
66
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Poirier
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
6.6
5.1
Style: Volume
4.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
10 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
31
1
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance28
0Clinch6
4Ground0
Alvarez
Poirier
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Alvarez
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Alvarez
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Poirier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
AlvarezPoirier
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedPoirier
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (63% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (91% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevSubmission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisKO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11