UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Newark, USA
18 Apr 2015
Welterweight
VS
31%
Sullivan
69%
Means
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Means
Means holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Sullivan has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Means has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sullivan's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sullivan
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+75"
45
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sullivan
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
36.5
38.1
Performance Avg
45.2
35
Quality of Victory
41
79
Momentum Score
40
Sullivan
Means
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
1
Body
3
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground2
Sullivan
Means
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sullivan
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
6
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/24 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Sullivan
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
40
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Sullivan
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
53%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sullivan
Means
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
SullivanMeans
Strike Zones
Sullivan
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedMeans
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sullivan targets the head (80% of attacks) — Means absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (45% of attacks) — Sullivan absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sullivan
RND
Means
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Sullivan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Means · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sullivan · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
Alexander YakovlevRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Dominic WatersRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Sub · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
Means · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10