METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Dallas, USA
14 Mar 2015
Women's Strawweight
VS
59%
Esparza
41%
Jedrzejczyk
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:17
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
5'1"63" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
JJ
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
16 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 28
★ Official Result
Joanna JedrzejczykwinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:17
def. Carla Esparza · UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Esparza
→
Actual result
Jedrzejczyk wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 59% vs Jedrzejczyk at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jedrzejczyk has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaJedrzejczyk
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'6"
63"
Reach
+65"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
27.8
45.9
Performance Avg
52.9
35
Quality of Victory
44
60
Momentum Score
58
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
3.4
7.7
Style: Volume
7.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
39
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance25
0Clinch14
0Ground3
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
58
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Striking2.3 / 3.3Volume7.7 / 7.7Grappling2.7 / 1.9Wrestling1.9 / 1.3Submission1.0 / 0.0Pressure3.3 / 3.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Esparza
Strike Zones
Jedrzejczyk
Esparza
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD3BODY0LEGS42 absorbed
Jedrzejczyk
Attacking
39HEAD3BODY0LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jedrzejczyk absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jedrzejczyk targets the head (93% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Esparza
RND
Jedrzejczyk
0/0R00/0

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia Pennington
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang Weili
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose Namajunas
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan Xiaonan
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina Rodriguez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Jedrzejczyk · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Zhang Weili
KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
L · Dec · R5
Zhang Weili
Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
W · Dec · R5
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Tecia Pennington
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07

News & Media

Carla Esparza · Joanna Jedrzejczyk
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