★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Dallas, USA
14 Mar 2015
Women's Strawweight
VS
59%
Esparza
41%
Jedrzejczyk
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Esparza
This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 59% vs Jedrzejczyk at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jedrzejczyk has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jedrzejczyk has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'6"
63"
Reach
+65"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
27.8
45.9
Performance Avg
52.9
35
Quality of Victory
44
60
Momentum Score
58
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.7
40%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
39
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance25
0Clinch14
0Ground3
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
58
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Jedrzejczyk
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
EsparzaJedrzejczyk
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
42 absorbedJedrzejczyk
Attacking
42 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jedrzejczyk absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jedrzejczyk targets the head (93% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Jedrzejczyk
0/0R00/0
Esparza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Jedrzejczyk · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Jedrzejczyk · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06
L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 7.3Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
W · Dec · R5
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07