UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Oklahoma City, USA
25 Jun 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
70%
Herrig
30%
Kish
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FH
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
14 – 10
5'4"65" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 26
JK
Justine Kish
7 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'5"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herrig

Herrig is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Herrig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Herrig throws more volume but Kish connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Herrig
Kish
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
65"+
Reach
64"
41
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herrig
Kish
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.3
11.5
41.4
Performance Avg
32.1
36
Quality of Victory
25
66
Momentum Score
30
Herrig
Kish
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance6
0Clinch0
18Ground0
Herrig
Kish
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herrig
Kish
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
82
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
7/11 fights
Herrig
Kish
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
30
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Herrig
Kish
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herrig
Kish
Striking1.0 / 0.9Volume5.8 / 8.9Grappling4.6 / 2.4Wrestling3.3 / 1.7Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Herrig
Strike Zones
Kish
Herrig
Attacking
20HEAD1BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Kish
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD1BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herrig targets the head (95% of attacks) — Kish absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Kish targets the head (50% of attacks) — Herrig absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herrig
RND
Kish
0/0R00/0

Herrig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.0W5.7W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.2L2.8L2014-122017-022018-042022-06
WinLossTrend

Kish · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L6.2L2016-012017-062020-012021-04
WinLossTrend

Herrig · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Virna JandirobaRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

Kish · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tracy CortezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R3
Sabina MazoRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Ji Yeon KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Felice HerrigRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06

News & Media

Felice Herrig · Justine Kish
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