UFC 84: Ill Will
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2008
Light Heavyweight
VS
48%
Machida
52%
Ortiz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
TO
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
19 – 12
Well-Rounded3-fight slide51 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'3"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortiz

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 48% vs Ortiz at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ortiz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Striking split: Ortiz throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ortiz has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Ortiz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
74"
47+
Age
51
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Ortiz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
20.4
53.8
Performance Avg
57.3
45
Quality of Victory
57
78
Momentum Score
85
Machida
Ortiz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
1
Body
9
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch11
5Ground0
Machida
Ortiz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Ortiz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.4 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
27/31 fights
Machida
Ortiz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
85
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Machida
Ortiz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
7
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Ortiz
Striking5.7 / 5.8Volume5.3 / 3.8Grappling1.7 / 1.9Wrestling1.2 / 1.3Submission0.6 / 1.3Pressure5.5 / 5.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Machida
Strike Zones
Ortiz
Machida
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD9BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Ortiz
Attacking
2HEAD9BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ortiz targets the body (69% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Ortiz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Ortiz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L4.2W5.0W3.4L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.5L2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L5.5L5.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L1.5L5.5L1997-052001-022005-022010-102012-07
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Ortiz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Forrest GriffinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Rogerio NogueiraRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
L · KO · R2
Rashad EvansRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
W · Sub · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5
Submission
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
L · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Tito Ortiz
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