UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
Sacramento, USA
30 Aug 2014
Middleweight
VS
34%
Larkin
66%
Brunson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LL
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18 – 6
5'11"72" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight win streakStriker
CFR 21
DB
Derek Brunson
"The One"
23 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw77" reach6'1"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brunson

Brunson holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Larkin has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Larkin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Brunson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Larkin
Brunson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+77"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Larkin
Brunson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.5
40.2
47.0
Performance Avg
54.7
45
Quality of Victory
47
92
Momentum Score
72
Larkin
Brunson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
44%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
6
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Larkin
Brunson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Larkin
Brunson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
21/32 fights
Larkin
Brunson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
72
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Larkin
Brunson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Larkin
Brunson
Striking7.0 / 6.3Volume4.2 / 4.2Grappling1.0 / 2.0Wrestling0.7 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 1.4Pressure5.7 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Larkin
Strike Zones
Brunson
Larkin
Attacking
2HEAD6BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Brunson
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD6BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Larkin targets the body (75% of attacks) — Brunson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Brunson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Larkin absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Larkin
RND
Brunson
0/0R00/0

Larkin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L5.8L5.0W5.8W5.5L4.5W5.6W2013-042014-052015-062016-08
WinLossTrend

Brunson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W2.4L5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L2.9L4.5W4.5W6.9W5.1W5.2W3.7L4.7L2012-122016-022018-012021-092023-03
WinLossTrend

Larkin · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
John HowardRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

Brunson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08

News & Media

Lorenz Larkin · Derek Brunson
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