UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Hamburg, Germany
3 Sept 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
39%
Evans-Smith
61%
Hardy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hardy
Hardy holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Evans-Smith has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Evans-Smith throws more volume but Hardy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Evans-Smith's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hardy has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'4"
67"+
Reach
64"
38
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.0
41.4
33.3
Performance Avg
38.5
33
Quality of Victory
31
26
Momentum Score
55
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
33%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
1
7
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
1Clinch0
23Ground0
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/12 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Evans-Smith
Hardy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Evans-SmithHardy
Strike Zones
Evans-Smith
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedHardy
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Evans-Smith targets the head (71% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the body (67% of attacks) — Evans-Smith absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Evans-Smith
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0
Evans-Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Evans-Smith · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Bec RawlingsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · Sub · R1
Sarah MorasRating 1.5Submission
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
Hardy · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Brogan WalkerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Juliana MillerRating 4.7Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03