UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
57%
Hooker
43%
Burns
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hooker
This is a genuine toss-up — Hooker at 57% vs Burns at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Hooker throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hooker's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hooker
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
71"
36+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Hooker
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.3
39.8
50.3
Performance Avg
48.1
45
Quality of Victory
40
78
Momentum Score
28
Hooker
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
5
4
Body
1
6
Leg
7
RangeRange
19Distance13
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Hooker
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hooker
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
5
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/38 fights
Chin rating based on
25/32 fights
Hooker
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Hooker
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
53%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
5
5
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hooker
Burns
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
HookerBurns
Strike Zones
Hooker
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedBurns
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hooker targets the head (55% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the legs (54% of attacks) — Hooker absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hooker
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Hooker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Hooker · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz GamrotRating 5.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Jalin TurnerRating 5.7Decision
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Claudio PuellesRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05