METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2023
Lightweight
VS
44%
Guida
56%
Garcia
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rafa GarciawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Clay Guida · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garcia
→
Actual result
Garcia wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 44% vs Garcia at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaGarcia
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Garcia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
44
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Garcia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
50.6
40.7
Performance Avg
44.7
35
Quality of Victory
32
78
Momentum Score
75
Guida
Garcia
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
3.9
5.9
Style: Volume
7.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
38
1
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance42
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Guida
Garcia
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
2.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Guida
Garcia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Guida
Garcia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
75
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Guida
Garcia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Garcia
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
GuidaGarcia
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
42 absorbedGarcia
Attacking
42 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (84% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Garcia targets the head (90% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Garcia
0/0R00/0
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
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Rafa GarciaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanDecision
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Claudio PuellesSubmission
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Garcia · Last 5
Upcoming
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