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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Kansas City, USA
15 Apr 2023
Lightweight
VS
47%
Guida
53%
Garcia
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
Rafa
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
19 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 51
★ Official Result
Rafa GarciawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Clay Guida · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garcia
→
Actual result
Garcia wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 47% vs Garcia at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Garcia has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
GuidaGarcia
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Garcia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
44
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Garcia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
50.6
40.7
Performance Avg
44.7
35
Quality of Victory
32
78
Momentum Score
75
Guida
Garcia
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.5
36%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
38
1
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance42
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Guida
Garcia
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Garcia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
11/23 fights
Guida
Garcia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
75
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Guida
Garcia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Garcia
Striking2.1 / 2.7Volume5.9 / 7.0Grappling3.7 / 2.9Wrestling2.6 / 2.0Submission2.8 / 1.4Pressure4.2 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Guida
Strike Zones
Garcia
Guida
Attacking
16HEAD1BODY2LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
38HEAD2BODY2LEGS42 absorbed
Garcia
Attacking
38HEAD2BODY2LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD1BODY2LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (84% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Garcia targets the head (90% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Garcia
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.2L5.5L4.5W5.2W6.5L4.8W5.0W4.2L4.7W5.9W5.4W2021-032022-042023-042025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Garcia · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

News & Media

Clay Guida · Rafa Garcia
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