UFC 78: Validation
Newark, USA
17 Nov 2007
Middleweight
VS
77%
Herman
23%
Doerksen
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Herman
Herman is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Herman throws more volume but Doerksen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Herman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Doerksen has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Herman
Doerksen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
75"
45+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herman
Doerksen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
11.7
47.4
Performance Avg
37.2
44
Quality of Victory
47
82
Momentum Score
0
Herman
Doerksen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Herman
Doerksen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herman
Doerksen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
16
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/43 fights
Chin rating based on
9/67 fights
Herman
Doerksen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Herman
Doerksen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herman
Doerksen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
HermanDoerksen
Strike Zones
Herman
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedDoerksen
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herman targets the head (100% of attacks) — Doerksen absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herman
RND
Doerksen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Herman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Doerksen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Herman · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
W · Sub · R3
Mike RodriguezRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Khadis IbragimovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
Doerksen · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dan MillerRating 5.5Decision
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Sub · R1
CB DollawayRating 1.5Submission
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Tom LawlorRating 5.2Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R2
Jason MacDonaldRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
L · KO · R3
Ed HermanRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11