UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Chicago, USA
26 Jan 2013
Lightweight
VS
40%
Pettis
60%
Cerrone
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cerrone
Cerrone holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Pettis has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pettis's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pettis
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+73"
39+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
28.2
52.6
Performance Avg
53.0
51
Quality of Victory
47
72
Momentum Score
63
Pettis
Cerrone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.3
52%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
2
4
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance4
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Pettis
Cerrone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/34 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Pettis
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Pettis
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
10
4
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pettis
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
PettisCerrone
Strike Zones
Pettis
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (72% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pettis
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01