UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Oct 2024
Middleweight
VS
42%
Naurdiev
58%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
This is a genuine toss-up — Naurdiev at 42% vs Silva at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Striking split: Silva throws more volume but Naurdiev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Silva has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Naurdiev
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
29+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Naurdiev
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.4
61.6
43.1
Performance Avg
49.0
34
Quality of Victory
58
45
Momentum Score
91
Naurdiev
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
58%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
9
7
Body
1
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
28Distance8
5Clinch2
0Ground0
Naurdiev
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Naurdiev
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/33 fights
Chin rating based on
11/36 fights
Naurdiev
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
91
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Naurdiev
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Naurdiev
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
NaurdievSilva
Strike Zones
Naurdiev
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedSilva
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Naurdiev targets the head (64% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (90% of attacks) — Naurdiev absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Naurdiev
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
Naurdiev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Naurdiev · Last 5
Upcoming
Marvin VettoriUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
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L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
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Silva · Last 5
L · KO · R1
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R1
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