UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
38%
Evans-Smith
62%
Lee
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AE
Ashlee Evans-Smith
"Rebel Girl"
6 – 6
5'8"67" reachOrthodox38 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 26
Andrea
Andrea Lee
"KGB"
13 – 11
Well-Rounded6-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lee

Lee holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Evans-Smith has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lee has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Evans-Smith's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Evans-Smith
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+69"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evans-Smith
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.0
43.1
33.3
Performance Avg
35.8
33
Quality of Victory
36
26
Momentum Score
53
Evans-Smith
Lee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
33%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
13
5
Body
11
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
14Distance30
3Clinch2
0Ground0
Evans-Smith
Lee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Evans-Smith
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
82
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/12 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Evans-Smith
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Evans-Smith
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Evans-Smith
Lee
Striking4.0 / 2.7Volume6.0 / 5.5Grappling1.6 / 3.0Wrestling1.1 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure3.3 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Evans-Smith
Strike Zones
Lee
Evans-Smith
Attacking
11HEAD5BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD11BODY8LEGS32 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
13HEAD11BODY8LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD5BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Evans-Smith targets the head (65% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (41% of attacks) — Evans-Smith absorbs 41% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Evans-Smith
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0

Evans-Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.1L4.5W5.8W5.9L1.5L4.5W5.9L6.0L6.5L2014-122017-042019-022023-07
WinLossTrend

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0104.8W4.5W5.5W5.7L6.3L5.5L5.2W5.2W6.2L6.5L7.0L6.3L6.5L6.1L2018-052020-022022-052024-062025-03
WinLossTrend

Evans-Smith · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Bec RawlingsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · Sub · R1
Sarah MorasRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09

Lee · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03

News & Media

Ashlee Evans-Smith · Andrea Lee
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