UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Houston, USA
15 May 2021
Featherweight
VS
62%
Vannata
38%
Grundy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vannata
Vannata holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Grundy has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grundy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Vannata throws more volume but Grundy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Vannata's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vannata
Grundy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
71"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Vannata
Grundy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.9
27.6
37.9
Performance Avg
43.0
41
Quality of Victory
55
70
Momentum Score
36
Vannata
Grundy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
7
7
Body
9
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance15
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Vannata
Grundy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vannata
Grundy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Vannata
Grundy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
36
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Vannata
Grundy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vannata
Grundy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
VannataGrundy
Strike Zones
Vannata
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedGrundy
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vannata targets the head (48% of attacks) — Grundy absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Grundy targets the body (56% of attacks) — Vannata absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vannata
RND
Grundy
0/0R00/0
Vannata · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Grundy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Vannata · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Darrius FlowersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Sub · R1
Charles JourdainRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Mike GrundyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
Grundy · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 1.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Lando VannataRating 6Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
W · KO · R2
Nad NarimaniRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03