UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Welterweight
VS
41%
Harvison
59%
Baczynski
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:12
SB
CFR 14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Baczynski
This is a genuine toss-up — Harvison at 41% vs Baczynski at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Baczynski has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Baczynski throws more volume but Harvison connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Harvison's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Baczynski has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Harvison
Baczynski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+75"
45
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Harvison
Baczynski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.0
14.3
28.3
Performance Avg
43.3
25
Quality of Victory
42
27
Momentum Score
33
Harvison
Baczynski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
31%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
9
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Harvison
Baczynski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Harvison
Baczynski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
28
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/19 fights
Chin rating based on
11/34 fights
Harvison
Baczynski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
27
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Harvison
Baczynski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Harvison
Baczynski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
HarvisonBaczynski
Strike Zones
Harvison
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedBaczynski
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Harvison targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Baczynski absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Baczynski targets the head (82% of attacks) — Harvison absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Harvison
RND
Baczynski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Harvison · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Baczynski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Harvison · Last 3
L · KO · R1
DaMarques JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · Sub · R2
Seth BaczynskiRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · 2011-06
Baczynski · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Leon EdwardsRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Brian MelanconRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07