METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fairfax, USA
11 Jan 2010
Middleweight
VS
47%
Simpson
53%
Lawlor
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aaron SimpsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tom Lawlor · UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lawlor
→
Actual result
Simpson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Simpson at 47% vs Lawlor at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lawlor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Simpson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SimpsonLawlor
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Simpson
Lawlor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+74"
52
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Simpson
Lawlor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
19.8
46.0
Performance Avg
48.7
34
Quality of Victory
45
76
Momentum Score
75
Simpson
Lawlor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
0.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Simpson
Lawlor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Simpson
Lawlor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
70
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Simpson
Lawlor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
75
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Simpson
Lawlor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Simpson
Lawlor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
SimpsonLawlor
Strike Zones
Simpson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedLawlor
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Simpson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Lawlor absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Lawlor targets the head (100% of attacks) — Simpson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Simpson
RND
Lawlor
0/0R00/0
Simpson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Lawlor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Simpson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Mike PierceRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5Decision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
Lawlor · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Michael KuiperRating 5.2Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Francis CarmontRating 5.5Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05