UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fairfax, USA
11 Jan 2010
Middleweight
VS
47%
Simpson
53%
Lawlor
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AS
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
12 – 5
6'0"73" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
TL
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
10 – 6
Well-Rounded43 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'0"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lawlor

This is a genuine toss-up — Simpson at 47% vs Lawlor at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lawlor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Simpson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Simpson
Lawlor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+74"
51
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Simpson
Lawlor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
19.8
46.0
Performance Avg
48.7
34
Quality of Victory
45
76
Momentum Score
75
Simpson
Lawlor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Simpson
Lawlor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Simpson
Lawlor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
70
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Simpson
Lawlor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
75
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Simpson
Lawlor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Simpson
Lawlor
Striking4.1 / 4.4Volume7.0 / 3.8Grappling1.7 / 3.5Wrestling1.2 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure3.9 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Simpson
Strike Zones
Lawlor
Simpson
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Lawlor
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Simpson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Lawlor absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Lawlor targets the head (100% of attacks) — Simpson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Simpson
RND
Lawlor
0/0R00/0

Simpson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.4W4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W2.8L2009-042010-062011-072012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Lawlor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L4.5W2.3L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W5.5L2008-122010-052012-052015-072016-03
WinLossTrend

Simpson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Mike PierceRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

Lawlor · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Michael KuiperRating 5.2
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Francis CarmontRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05

News & Media

Aaron Simpson · Tom Lawlor
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