METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fairfax, USA
11 Jan 2010
Middleweight
VS
47%
Simpson
53%
Lawlor
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aaron SimpsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tom Lawlor · UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lawlor
→
Actual result
Simpson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Simpson at 47% vs Lawlor at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lawlor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SimpsonLawlor
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Simpson
Lawlor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+74"
52
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Simpson
Lawlor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
19.8
46.0
Performance Avg
48.7
34
Quality of Victory
45
76
Momentum Score
75
Simpson
Lawlor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
3.9
Style: Pressure
6.3
7.0
Style: Volume
3.8
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Simpson
Lawlor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Simpson
Lawlor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
70
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Simpson
Lawlor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
75
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Simpson
Lawlor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Simpson
Lawlor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
SimpsonLawlor
Strike Zones
Simpson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedLawlor
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Simpson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Lawlor absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Lawlor targets the head (100% of attacks) — Simpson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Simpson
RND
Lawlor
0/0R00/0
Simpson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Mike PierceKO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonDecision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesDecision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferDecision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresDecision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
Lawlor · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonDecision
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Michael KuiperSubmission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Francis CarmontDecision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05