★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
13 Feb 2021
Welterweight
VS
59%
Usman
41%
Burns
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:34
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
6'0"76" reachSwitch39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Gilbert
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22 – 10
Well-Rounded5-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Usman

This is a genuine toss-up — Usman at 59% vs Burns at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Burns throws more volume but Usman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Usman
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
71"
39
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
39.8
61.2
Performance Avg
48.1
46
Quality of Victory
40
55
Momentum Score
28
Usman
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Usman
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.6
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
25/32 fights
Usman
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
28
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Usman
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
53%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
5
11
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Usman
Burns
Striking4.2 / 3.2Volume7.2 / 4.9Grappling2.1 / 3.8Wrestling1.5 / 2.6Submission0.6 / 3.3Pressure4.7 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Usman
Strike Zones
Burns
Usman
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Burns
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (100% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the body (50% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Usman
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.2W5.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.4L4.5W6.4W4.5W5.6W5.0W4.5W3.9L5.1W7.4L5.6W4.5W6.6L5.5L6.6L3.6L4.5L2014-072018-042020-052024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Kamaru Usman · Gilbert Burns
← Back to fights