★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Anaheim, USA
17 Feb 2024
Featherweight
VS
44%
Volkanovski
56%
Topuria
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:32
CFR 64
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Topuria
This is a genuine toss-up — Volkanovski at 44% vs Topuria at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Topuria has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Volkanovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Volkanovski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Volkanovski
Topuria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkanovski
Topuria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
82.3
59.8
Performance Avg
77.5
44
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Volkanovski
Topuria
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.6
61%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
13
4
Body
5
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
20Distance15
1Clinch2
0Ground3
Volkanovski
Topuria
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Volkanovski
Topuria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/17 fights
Volkanovski
Topuria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
9-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Volkanovski
Topuria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
78%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Volkanovski
Topuria
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
VolkanovskiTopuria
Strike Zones
Volkanovski
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTopuria
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (62% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Topuria targets the head (65% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Volkanovski
RND
Topuria
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Volkanovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Topuria · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Volkanovski · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · KO · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Topuria · Last 5
Upcoming
Justin GaethjeUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06