UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Tampa, USA
12 Oct 2019
Lightweight
VS
68%
Frevola
32%
Pena
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Frevola
Frevola holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Pena has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Frevola has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Frevola has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Frevola's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Frevola
Pena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
71"
Reach
+75"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Frevola
Pena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.6
18.3
45.8
Performance Avg
46.5
46
Quality of Victory
36
20
Momentum Score
68
Frevola
Pena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
11
6
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
23Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Frevola
Pena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Frevola
Pena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
84
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/17 fights
Chin rating based on
8/12 fights
Frevola
Pena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
68
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Frevola
Pena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Frevola
Pena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
FrevolaPena
Strike Zones
Frevola
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedPena
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Frevola targets the head (65% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Pena targets the head (92% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Frevola
RND
Pena
0/0R00/0
Frevola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Pena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Frevola · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Decision
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L · KO · R1
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W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2KO/TKO
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UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Pena · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alexander MunozRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R3
Khama WorthyRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
W · Dec · R3
Steve GarciaRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · KO · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5KO/TKO
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