UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
23 May 2015
Lightweight
VS
48%
Cerrone
52%
Makdessi
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:44
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Makdessi
This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 48% vs Makdessi at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Makdessi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Makdessi has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cerrone
Makdessi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
68"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Makdessi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
30.9
53.0
Performance Avg
42.2
47
Quality of Victory
34
63
Momentum Score
51
Cerrone
Makdessi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
10 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
17
1
Body
15
12
Leg
8
RangeRange
38Distance38
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Cerrone
Makdessi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Makdessi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Cerrone
Makdessi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
51
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Cerrone
Makdessi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
27%
10
KO / TKO Wins
3
6
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Makdessi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
CerroneMakdessi
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedMakdessi
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (68% of attacks) — Makdessi absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Makdessi targets the head (43% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Makdessi
0/0R00/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Makdessi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
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L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
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L · KO · R1
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Makdessi · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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