UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Bantamweight
VS
49%
Arce
51%
Jackson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Julio
Julio Arce
19 – 6
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Montel
Montel Jackson
"Quik"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsSouthpaw75" reach5'10"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jackson

This is a genuine toss-up — Arce at 49% vs Jackson at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Arce throws more volume but Jackson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Arce
Jackson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+75"
36
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Arce
Jackson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.4
52.4
49.5
Performance Avg
51.6
43
Quality of Victory
40
65
Momentum Score
48
Arce
Jackson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
23
2
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance11
1Clinch2
0Ground11
Arce
Jackson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arce
Jackson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
92
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/25 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Arce
Jackson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
48
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Arce
Jackson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
44%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arce
Jackson
Striking6.2 / 4.7Volume3.9 / 5.8Grappling2.1 / 2.2Wrestling1.5 / 1.6Submission1.7 / 1.1Pressure6.5 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Arce
Strike Zones
Jackson
Arce
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD1BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Jackson
Attacking
23HEAD1BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arce targets the head (57% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Jackson targets the head (96% of attacks) — Arce absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arce
RND
Jackson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Arce · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.7W5.6L5.2W4.1L5.5W6.4L5.6W2018-012019-052021-112024-03
WinLossTrend

Jackson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.2L5.3W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.4W6.0W5.8W6.6L6.3L2018-082020-072023-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Arce · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Herbert BurnsRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Daniel SantosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · KO · R2
Andre EwellRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07

Jackson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Daniel MarcosRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Rani YahyaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04

News & Media

Julio Arce · Montel Jackson
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