METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Atlantic City, USA
21 Apr 2018
Heavyweight
VS
40%
Willis
60%
Sherman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Justin WilliswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chase Sherman · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sherman
→
Actual result
Willis wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Sherman holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Willis has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sherman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Sherman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WillisSherman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Willis
Sherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
78"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Willis
Sherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
30.1
52.2
Performance Avg
38.4
34
Quality of Victory
46
83
Momentum Score
46
Willis
Sherman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
6.0
7.6
Style: Volume
2.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
17
2
Body
13
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance17
1Clinch14
0Ground0
Willis
Sherman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Willis
Sherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/10 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Willis
Sherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
46
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Willis
Sherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Willis
Sherman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
WillisSherman
Strike Zones
Willis
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedSherman
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Willis targets the head (88% of attacks) — Sherman absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Sherman targets the head (55% of attacks) — Willis absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Willis
RND
Sherman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Willis · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Mark HuntDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Allen CrowderKO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
James MulheronDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
Sherman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaDecision
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Jared VanderaaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovSubmission
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L · Sub · R1
Jake CollierSubmission
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