UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Atlantic City, USA
21 Apr 2018
Heavyweight
VS
40%
Willis
60%
Sherman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JW
Justin Willis
"Big Pretty"
8 – 2
6'1"78" reachSouthpaw38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
Chase
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16 – 12
Striker2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 30

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sherman

Sherman holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Willis has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Sherman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Striking split: Sherman throws more volume but Willis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sherman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Willis
Sherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
78"
38
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Willis
Sherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
30.1
52.2
Performance Avg
38.4
34
Quality of Victory
46
83
Momentum Score
46
Willis
Sherman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
17
2
Body
13
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance17
1Clinch14
0Ground0
Willis
Sherman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Willis
Sherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/10 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Willis
Sherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
46
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Willis
Sherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Willis
Sherman
Striking4.1 / 8.0Volume7.6 / 2.5Grappling1.8 / 0.6Wrestling1.3 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Willis
Strike Zones
Sherman
Willis
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD13BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Sherman
Attacking
17HEAD13BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Willis targets the head (88% of attacks) — Sherman absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Sherman targets the head (55% of attacks) — Willis absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Willis
RND
Sherman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Willis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4L2017-072017-122018-042018-122019-03
WinLossTrend

Sherman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.5L4.2L5.2W6.2L5.5L1.5L2.3L5.5W7.0L6.0L2016-082017-112021-042022-072023-05
WinLossTrend

Willis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Mark HuntRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Allen CrowderRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
James MulheronRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

Sherman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
W · KO · R3
Jared VanderaaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Sub · R1
Jake CollierRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

News & Media

Justin Willis · Chase Sherman
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