UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Heavyweight
VS
32%
Collier
68%
Barnett
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:24
JC
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13 – 10
6'3"78" reachOrthodox37 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
Chris
Chris Barnett
"Beastboy"
23 – 10
Knockout Artist2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'9"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barnett

Barnett holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Collier has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barnett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Collier throws more volume but Barnett connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Collier's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barnett has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Collier
Barnett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
78"+
Reach
75"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Collier
Barnett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.7
55.9
36.4
Performance Avg
46.3
37
Quality of Victory
55
45
Momentum Score
65
Collier
Barnett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
37
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance9
3Clinch1
0Ground28
Collier
Barnett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Collier
Barnett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
6/33 fights
Collier
Barnett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
65
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Collier
Barnett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Collier
Barnett
Striking2.7 / 10.0Volume5.5 / 0.7Grappling3.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.1 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Collier
Strike Zones
Barnett
Collier
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD1BODY0LEGS38 absorbed
Barnett
Attacking
37HEAD1BODY0LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Collier targets the head (89% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Barnett targets the head (97% of attacks) — Collier absorbs 97% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Collier
RND
Barnett
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Collier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L4.5W3.9L4.5W5.5L5.0W6.2L3.8L6.5L6.5L2014-122017-042021-062023-042023-09
WinLossTrend

Barnett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0102.8L5.2W6.5L5.2W2.8L6.0L2021-052021-112022-042022-092024-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Collier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
L · KO · R2
Chris BarnettRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Sub · R1
Chase ShermanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

Barnett · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Hamdy AbdelwahabRating 6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jake CollierRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

News & Media

Jake Collier · Chris Barnett
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