UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
Atlanta, USA
21 Apr 2012
Welterweight
VS
48%
Brown
52%
Thompson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26 – 19
6'0"75" reachOrthodox45 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 43
Stephen
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thompson

This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 48% vs Thompson at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Thompson throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Brown
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
75"
Reach
75"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
46.3
54.0
Performance Avg
48.9
52
Quality of Victory
43
78
Momentum Score
45
Brown
Thompson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
60%
Strike Accuracy
47%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
13 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
25
2
Body
3
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance29
1Clinch0
5Ground0
Brown
Thompson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brown
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Brown
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Brown
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
50%
13
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brown
Thompson
Striking8.8 / 6.1Volume2.1 / 5.1Grappling1.2 / 1.2Wrestling0.8 / 0.8Submission1.2 / 0.0Pressure7.9 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Brown
Strike Zones
Thompson
Brown
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY7LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD3BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Thompson
Attacking
25HEAD3BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY7LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (44% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brown
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Thompson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.1L6.0W5.5W5.7L6.6L6.0W4.8L5.2L7.2L2012-022015-072019-032023-122025-07
WinLossTrend

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

Thompson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Matt Brown · Stephen Thompson
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