MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Sacramento, USA

22 Aug 2026

Lightweight

59%

Mederos

41%

Jones

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 2 · 2:07

MarQuel Mederos

11 – 1

5'10"69" reachOrthodox29 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 66

Mason Jones

"The Dragon"

18 – 2

Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"

CFR 46

★ Official Result

MarQuel MederoswinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:07

def. Mason Jones · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Mederos

Mederos by decision — output over three rounds against a taller man who does not…

→

Actual result

Mederos wins

KO/TKO · R2

Pre-fight analysis

Two lightweights who between them have won six straight without troubling many judges' imaginations, separated by twelve centimetres of reach.

This is a fight between two men who win rounds rather than fights. Between them they have eight recorded results in this pack and seven of them went to the cards; the only stoppage is Jones' knockout of Bolaji Oki last September. MarQuel Mederos is unbeaten in three recorded UFC appearances, all decisions — Mark Choinski in June 2025, Austin Hubbard in March 2025, Landon Quinones in February 2024…

Mederos intel

Mederos (11-1-1) is unbeaten in three recorded UFC fights, all decisions — Mark Choinski, Austin Hubbard and Landon Quinones. He has been out since June 2025, fourteen months, and his 25.0 quality-of-victory alongside a 0.00 finish rate frames what those wins have looked like.

Jones intel

Jones (18-2) has won three in a row, most recently a decision over Axel Sola in March, with a second-round TKO of Bolaji Oki in September 2025 the only stoppage in his recorded last five. At 31 he is the older man by two years and carries the reach advantage at 188.0cm.

Key angles

A 10.0 volume score against 7.33, fought inside a 12.7cm reach deficit

Fourteen months of inactivity for Mederos, whose entire game is pace

Finish rates of 0.00 and 0.25 — this almost certainly reaches the judges

Quality-of-victory of 25.0 and 32.5; neither man has beaten anyone the model rates

Chin ratings of 100.0 and 96.0 remove the one variable that could shortcut it

Risk flags

The lay-off is the pick's biggest weakness — a volume fighter fourteen months out is exactly the profile that fades in round three

Jones' reach and 3.83 striking give him a clean way to win the fight at range without ever engaging Mederos' output

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MederosJones

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Mederos

Jones

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"

Height

5'10"

69"

Reach

+74"

29+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Mederos

Jones

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

65.7

45.8

59.5

Performance Avg

42.4

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Mederos

Jones

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

3.6

/ 10

4.8

Style: Pressure

3.5

8.0

Style: Volume

7.1

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

27Distance22

5Clinch7

0Ground0

Mederos

Jones

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.8

/ 10

1.8

/ 10

1.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.3

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Mederos

Jones

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

100

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

5/12 fights

Chin rating based on

8/20 fights

Mederos

Jones

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · KO · R2

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Mederos

Jones

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

25%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mederos

Jones

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.6

1.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.8

1.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.3

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.5

8.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.1

Mederos

Strike Zones

Jones

Mederos

Attacking

32 landed

Absorbing

29 absorbed

Jones

Attacking

29 landed

Absorbing

32 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Mederos targets the head (81% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 81% of strikes there

🎯Jones targets the head (72% of attacks) — Mederos absorbs 72% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mederos

RND

Jones

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Mederos · Last 5

W · KO · R2

Mason Jones

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08

Upcoming

Chris Padilla

Decision

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Mark Choinski

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Austin Hubbard

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Landon Quinones

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

Jones · Last 5

L · KO · R2

MarQuel Mederos

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08

W · Dec · R3

Axel Sola

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03

W · KO · R2

Bolaji Oki

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09

W · Dec · R3

Jeremy Stephens

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05

L · Dec · R3

Ludovit Klein

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

News & Media

MarQuel Mederos · Mason Jones

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