UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Flyweight
VS
53%
Kara-France
47%
Erceg
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kara-France
This is a genuine toss-up — Kara-France at 53% vs Erceg at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Kara-France throws more volume but Erceg connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kara-France's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kara-France
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
69"+
Reach
68"
33
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kara-France
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.5
46.4
47.5
Performance Avg
43.6
38
Quality of Victory
31
80
Momentum Score
60
Kara-France
Erceg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
8
5
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
15Distance9
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Kara-France
Erceg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kara-France
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/37 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Kara-France
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
60
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Kara-France
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
20%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kara-France
Erceg
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Kara-FranceErceg
Strike Zones
Kara-France
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedErceg
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kara-France targets the head (61% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (89% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kara-France
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Kara-France · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Erceg · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Kara-France · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
Erceg · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.8Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05