Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Perth, Australia

17 Aug 2024

Flyweight

57%

Kara-France

43%

Erceg

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:04

Kai Kara-France

"Don't Blink"

25 – 12

5'4"69" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 53

Steve Erceg

"Astroboy"

14 – 4

Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"

CFR 40

★ Official Result

Kai Kara-FrancewinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:04

def. Steve Erceg · UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Kara-France

→

Actual result

Kara-France wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Kara-France at 57% vs Erceg at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Kara-France's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Erceg has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

Kara-FranceErceg

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Kara-France

Erceg

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'4"

Height

+5'8"

69"+

Reach

68"

Age

+31

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Kara-France

Erceg

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

52.5

40.1

47.5

Performance Avg

40.8

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Kara-France

Erceg

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.0

/ 10

3.1

/ 10

4.5

Style: Pressure

3.1

6.2

Style: Volume

7.5

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

15Distance9

0Clinch0

3Ground0

Kara-France

Erceg

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.5

/ 10

1.9

/ 10

1.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.3

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Kara-France

Erceg

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R3.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

3 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/37 fights

Chin rating based on

9/18 fights

Kara-France

Erceg

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

L · Sub · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Dec · R5

L · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

L · KO · R1

Kara-France

Erceg

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

38%

20%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kara-France

Erceg

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.1

1.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.9

1.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.3

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.1

6.2

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.5

Kara-France

Strike Zones

Erceg

Kara-France

Attacking

18 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Erceg

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

18 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Kara-France targets the head (61% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 61% of strikes there

🎯Erceg targets the head (89% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kara-France

RND

Erceg

0/0R00/0

0/0R20/0

Kara-France · Last 5

L · Sub · R3

Alexandre Pantoja

Submission

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

W · KO · R1

Steve Erceg

KO/TKO

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

L · Dec · R5

Amir Albazi

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

L · KO · R3

Brandon Moreno

KO/TKO

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07

W · Dec · R3

Askar Askarov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

Erceg · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Ramazan Temirov

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07

W · Dec · R3

Tim Elliott

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05

W · Dec · R3

Ode Osbourne

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08

L · Dec · R5

Brandon Moreno

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · KO · R1

Kai Kara-France

KO/TKO

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Kai Kara-France · Steve Erceg

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