UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
21 Aug 2021
Bantamweight
VS
91%
Kelleher
9%
Pilarte
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelleher
Kelleher is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelleher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Kelleher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher
Pilarte
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+6'0"
66"
Reach
+73"
39
Age
+36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Kelleher
Pilarte
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
4.2
44.5
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
61
Momentum Score
0
Kelleher
Pilarte
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
20%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Kelleher
Pilarte
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelleher
Pilarte
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Kelleher
Pilarte
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Kelleher
Pilarte
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelleher
Pilarte
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
KelleherPilarte
Strike Zones
Kelleher
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedPilarte
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the head (82% of attacks) — Pilarte absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Pilarte targets the body (100% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelleher
RND
Pilarte
0/0R00/0
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Pilarte · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Pilarte · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
Upcoming
Journey NewsonUFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Felipe ColaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07