UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Featherweight
VS
55%
Jenkins
45%
Burns
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:48
Jack
Jack Jenkins
"Phar"
14 – 4
5'7"68" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Herbert
Herbert Burns
"The Blaze"
11 – 6
Pressure Fighter4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'9"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jenkins

This is a genuine toss-up — Jenkins at 55% vs Burns at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.

Jenkins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jenkins's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Burns has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jenkins
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+73"
32+
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jenkins
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
42.8
45.4
Performance Avg
47.5
31
Quality of Victory
57
81
Momentum Score
39
Jenkins
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.6
61%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
1
1
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance2
0Clinch1
8Ground0
Jenkins
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jenkins
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
12
Moderate
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Jenkins
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Jenkins
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jenkins
Burns
Striking3.8 / 5.7Volume7.3 / 0.7Grappling1.8 / 4.0Wrestling1.3 / 2.8Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure3.8 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Jenkins
Strike Zones
Burns
Jenkins
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Burns
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jenkins targets the head (86% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (33% of attacks) — Jenkins absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jenkins
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Jenkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.0W3.8L5.9W4.7L4.5W2023-022023-062023-092024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.7W5.0W3.6L3.0L3.5L4.8L2020-012020-062020-082022-072024-032024-08
WinLossTrend

Jenkins · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Ramon TaverasRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Sub · R3
Gabriel SantosRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · KO · R3
Herbert BurnsRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Chepe MariscalRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Jamall EmmersRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jack JenkinsRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Julio ArceRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · Sub · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06

News & Media

Jack Jenkins · Herbert Burns
← Back to fights