UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Las Vegas, USA
29 Apr 2023
Welterweight
VS
49%
Quinlan
51%
Waters
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Josh
Josh Quinlan
"Bushido"
6 – 3
6'0"72" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 44
Trey
Trey Waters
"The Truth"
9 – 2
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'5"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Waters

This is a genuine toss-up — Quinlan at 49% vs Waters at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Quinlan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.

Waters has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Quinlan
Waters
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'5"
72"
Reach
+77"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Quinlan
Waters
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.7
46.3
46.0
Performance Avg
41.7
60
Quality of Victory
25
22
Momentum Score
73
Quinlan
Waters
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.6
35%
Strike Accuracy
46%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
39
1
Body
1
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance40
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Quinlan
Waters
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Quinlan
Waters
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/9 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Quinlan
Waters
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
73
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Quinlan
Waters
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Quinlan
Waters
Striking10.0 / 1.3Volume0.5 / 9.3Grappling0.0 / 2.4Wrestling0.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 2.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
Quinlan
Strike Zones
Waters
Quinlan
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY5LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD1BODY0LEGS40 absorbed
Waters
Attacking
39HEAD1BODY0LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY5LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Quinlan targets the head (70% of attacks) — Waters absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Waters targets the head (98% of attacks) — Quinlan absorbs 98% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Quinlan
RND
Waters
0/0R00/0

Quinlan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W6.1L4.7L5.7L2022-082023-042024-022024-06
WinLossTrend

Waters · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.9W5.5W3.2L2023-042024-052025-09
WinLossTrend

Quinlan · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Adam FugittRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
L · KO · R3
Danny BarlowRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Trey WatersRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · KO · R1
Jason WittRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08

Waters · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Sam PattersonRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Billy Ray GoffRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Josh QuinlanRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04

News & Media

Josh Quinlan · Trey Waters
← Back to fights