UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
New York City, USA
3 Nov 2018
Middleweight
VS
72%
Weidman
28%
Souza
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weidman
Weidman is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Souza has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Weidman
Souza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
72"
41+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Weidman
Souza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.1
19.5
57.0
Performance Avg
54.6
55
Quality of Victory
53
51
Momentum Score
56
Weidman
Souza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
56%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
18
4
Body
9
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance25
2Clinch3
0Ground1
Weidman
Souza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weidman
Souza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
36
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/24 fights
Chin rating based on
16/36 fights
Weidman
Souza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Weidman
Souza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
89%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weidman
Souza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
WeidmanSouza
Strike Zones
Weidman
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedSouza
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weidman targets the head (79% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Souza targets the head (62% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weidman
RND
Souza
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Weidman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Weidman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11