Chris Weidman vs Jacare Souza — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis

New York City, USA

3 Nov 2018

Middleweight

70%

Weidman

30%

Souza

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 3 · 2:46

Chris Weidman

"The All-American"

16 – 8

6'2"78" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 46

Jacare Souza

26 – 10

Pressure Fighter4-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"

CFR 20

★ Official Result

Jacare SouzawinsKO/TKOR3 · 2:46

def. Chris Weidman · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Weidman

→

Actual result

Souza wins

KO/TKO · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Weidman is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Souza has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

WeidmanSouza

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Weidman

Souza

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'2"+

Height

6'1"

78"+

Reach

72"

42+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Weidman

Souza

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

46.0

19.5

57.0

Performance Avg

54.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Weidman

Souza

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

5.6

/ 10

5.9

Style: Pressure

7.9

4.5

Style: Volume

2.0

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

4 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

17Distance25

2Clinch3

0Ground1

Weidman

Souza

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.0

/ 10

3.8

/ 10

2.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.7

2.5

Submission Style (/10)

4.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Weidman

Souza

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

3 consec. KOs

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.3 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.5 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

20/24 fights

Chin rating based on

16/36 fights

Weidman

Souza

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R3

Weidman

Souza

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

58%

89%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Weidman

Souza

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.6

3.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.8

2.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.7

2.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.4

5.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.9

4.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.0

Weidman

Strike Zones

Souza

Weidman

Attacking

19 landed

Absorbing

29 absorbed

Souza

Attacking

29 landed

Absorbing

19 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Weidman targets the head (79% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 79% of strikes there

🎯Souza targets the head (62% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Weidman

RND

Souza

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Weidman · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Eryk Anders

KO/TKO

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12

W · Dec · R3

Bruno Silva

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03

L · Dec · R3

Brad Tavares

Decision

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

L · KO · R1

Uriah Hall

KO/TKO

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04

W · Dec · R3

Omari Akhmedov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08

Souza · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Andre Muniz

Submission

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05

L · KO · R1

Kevin Holland

KO/TKO

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12

L · Dec · R5

Jan Blachowicz

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11

L · Dec · R5

Jack Hermansson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04

W · KO · R3

Chris Weidman

KO/TKO

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11

News & Media

Chris Weidman · Jacare Souza

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