UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
East Rutherford, USA
5 May 2012
Lightweight
VS
48%
Castillo
52%
Cholish
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
5'9"71" reachOrthodox46 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
JC
John Cholish
8 – 3
Knockout Artist2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cholish

This is a genuine toss-up — Castillo at 48% vs Cholish at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Cholish has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Cholish has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Castillo
Cholish
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+74"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Castillo
Cholish
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
18.7
40.6
Performance Avg
46.3
34
Quality of Victory
55
89
Momentum Score
43
Castillo
Cholish
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
2
Body
0
8
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance8
7Clinch1
3Ground0
Castillo
Cholish
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Castillo
Cholish
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Castillo
Cholish
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
43
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Castillo
Cholish
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castillo
Cholish
Striking3.9 / 10.0Volume6.7 / 0.7Grappling1.7 / 0.0Wrestling1.2 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Castillo
Strike Zones
Cholish
Castillo
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY8LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Cholish
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY8LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (47% of attacks) — Cholish absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Cholish targets the head (78% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Castillo
RND
Cholish
0/0R00/0

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Cholish · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L2.8L2011-122012-052013-05
WinLossTrend

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

Cholish · Last 3

L · Sub · R2
Gleison TibauRating 2.8
Submission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R2
Mitch ClarkeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12

News & Media

Danny Castillo · John Cholish
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