UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Sao Paulo, Brazil
16 Nov 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
70%
Blachowicz
30%
Souza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Blachowicz
Blachowicz is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Blachowicz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Souza has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Blachowicz
Souza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
72"
43+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blachowicz
Souza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
19.5
53.0
Performance Avg
54.6
48
Quality of Victory
53
20
Momentum Score
56
Blachowicz
Souza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
56%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
0
Body
0
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance1
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Blachowicz
Souza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Blachowicz
Souza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
36
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/40 fights
Chin rating based on
16/36 fights
Blachowicz
Souza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
56
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Blachowicz
Souza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
89%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blachowicz
Souza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
BlachowiczSouza
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSouza
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (73% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Souza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blachowicz
RND
Souza
0/0R00/0
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11