UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Lightweight
VS
55%
Makhachev
45%
Dober
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:37
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs16-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 75
Drew
Drew Dober
29 – 15
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak37 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'8"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 55% vs Dober at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Makhachev
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
70"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Makhachev
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.5
59.9
69.8
Performance Avg
53.2
53
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Dober
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
1Clinch1
1Ground2
Makhachev
Dober
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Makhachev
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
16 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/29 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Makhachev
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
16-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Makhachev
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
80%
3
KO / TKO Wins
11
8
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev
Dober
Striking3.6 / 8.5Volume4.7 / 2.8Grappling4.6 / 1.0Wrestling3.2 / 0.7Submission4.7 / 0.7Pressure7.4 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
Makhachev
Strike Zones
Dober
Makhachev
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Dober
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (80% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the body (60% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Dober · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L5.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W3.7L5.0W5.7W6.1W6.0L5.5L6.5W5.5W6.0W1.7L5.1W6.3L7.1L3.6L5.5W5.3W2013-112017-072021-032024-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Dober · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Drew Dober
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