Islam Makhachev vs Drew Dober — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya

Las Vegas, USA

6 Mar 2021

Lightweight

55%

Makhachev

45%

Dober

Win Probability

Submission

Round 3 · 1:37

Islam Makhachev

28 – 1

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs17-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 74

Drew Dober

29 – 15

Knockout Artist2-fight win streak37 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'8"

CFR 60

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR3 · 1:37

def. Drew Dober · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Makhachev

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

Submission · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 55% vs Dober at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MakhachevDober

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Makhachev

Dober

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'8"

70"

Reach

70"

34+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

Makhachev

Dober

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

73.9

59.9

69.4

Performance Avg

53.2

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Makhachev

Dober

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

8.5

/ 10

7.1

Style: Pressure

7.3

5.0

Style: Volume

2.8

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

11 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

3Distance2

1Clinch1

1Ground2

Makhachev

Dober

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

1.0

/ 10

3.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.7

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

0.7

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Makhachev

Dober

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

17 fights ago

Last KO loss

2 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/29 fights

Chin rating based on

27/44 fights

Makhachev

Dober

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

17-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R5

W · KO · R1

Last 5

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R3

L · KO · R1

L · R3

L · Dec · R3

Makhachev

Dober

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

61%

80%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev

Dober

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

8.5

4.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.0

3.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.7

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.7

7.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.3

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.8

Makhachev

Strike Zones

Dober

Makhachev

Attacking

5 landed

Absorbing

5 absorbed

Dober

Attacking

5 landed

Absorbing

5 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Makhachev targets the head (80% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 80% of strikes there

🎯Dober targets the body (60% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev

RND

Dober

0/0R00/0

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R5

Dustin Poirier

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R1

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Dober · Last 5

W · KO · R2

Michael Johnson

KO/TKO

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

W · KO · R3

Kyle Prepolec

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

L · KO · R1

Manuel Torres

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · R3

Jean Silva

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

L · Dec · R3

Renato Moicano

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Drew Dober

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