UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Bantamweight
VS
62%
Bautista
38%
Jones
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bautista
Bautista holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Jones has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bautista
Jones
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+70"
32+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bautista
Jones
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
35.1
54.6
Performance Avg
41.0
39
Quality of Victory
55
73
Momentum Score
26
Bautista
Jones
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
0.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Bautista
Jones
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Jones
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
82
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/23 fights
Bautista
Jones
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
26
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Bautista
Jones
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bautista
Jones
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
BautistaJones
Strike Zones
Bautista
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedJones
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (67% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Jones targets the head (86% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bautista
RND
Jones
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Bautista · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Bautista · Last 5
Upcoming
Cory SandhagenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Jones · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.6Decision
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Javid BasharatRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Sub · R3
Saidyokub KakhramonovRating 4.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · KO · R2
Mario BautistaRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03