Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Las Vegas, USA

20 Jun 2026

Women's Bantamweight

65%

Mesquita

35%

Mullins

Win Probability

Submission

Round 1 · 3:16

Bia Mesquita

"The Lady GOAT"

7 – 0

5'4"67" reachOrthodox35 yrs3-fight win streakSubmission Hunter

CFR 80

Melissa Mullins

"No Mess"

7 – 2

Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"

CFR 43

★ Official Result

Bia MesquitawinsSubmissionR1 · 3:16

def. Melissa Mullins · UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Mesquita

Bia Mesquita by submission, Round 1. She drags Mullins to the mat immediately an…

→

Actual result

Mesquita wins

Submission · R1

Pre-fight analysis

One of women's MMA's premier grapplers makes her case for a title shot.

Bia Mesquita is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion who has translated her mat dominance into a 7-0 UFC record with a 100% finish rate. At a momentum of 100, she enters this fight as one of the most dangerous grapplers in the women's strawweight division. Mullins (7-2) is a striker (style 6.0) who will need to keep Mesquita on the outside to survive. The CFR gap here — 79.2 to 49.4 — is substant…

Mesquita intel

Mesquita at peak momentum with a 100% finish rate. Her BJJ is the best in the division and she is relentless in the clinch.

Mullins intel

Mullins has genuine striking ability (style 6.0) and a decent finish rate (50%), but she has never faced a grappler of Mesquita's calibre.

Key angles

How quickly Mesquita secures the first takedown

Whether Mullins can create separation and land volume before being taken down

Risk flags

Mullins has a finish rate of 50% — one exchange on the feet could change things

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MesquitaMullins

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Mesquita

Mullins

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'4"

Height

+5'7"

67"

Reach

+68"

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Mesquita

Mullins

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

79.6

42.8

71.5

Performance Avg

40.0

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Mesquita

Mullins

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

5.8

/ 10

10.0

Style: Pressure

4.7

2.0

Style: Volume

4.8

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

3Distance8

0Clinch2

0Ground0

Mesquita

Mullins

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

8.0

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

5.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.8

10.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Mesquita

Mullins

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

100

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

3/7 fights

Chin rating based on

5/9 fights

Mesquita

Mullins

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R2

Last 5

L · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Mesquita

Mullins

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mesquita

Mullins

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.8

8.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.2

5.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.8

10.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

10.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.7

2.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.8

Mesquita

Strike Zones

Mullins

Mesquita

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

10 absorbed

Mullins

Attacking

10 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Mesquita targets the head (67% of attacks) — Mullins absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Mullins targets the head (80% of attacks) — Mesquita absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mesquita

RND

Mullins

0/0R00/0

Mesquita · Last 3

W · Sub · R1

Melissa Mullins

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · Sub · R1

Montse Rendon

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

W · Sub · R2

Irina Alekseeva

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

Mullins · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Bia Mesquita

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

L · Dec · R3

Daria Zhelezniakova

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06

W · KO · R2

Klaudia Sygula

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11

L · KO · R2

Nora Cornolle

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04

W · Dec · R3

Irina Alekseeva

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10

News & Media

Bia Mesquita · Melissa Mullins

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