UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Toronto, Canada
21 Sept 2013
Heavyweight
VS
42%
Schaub
58%
Mitrione
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:06
BS
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
10 – 5
6'4"78" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
MM
Matt Mitrione
12 – 5
Knockout Artist2-fight slide47 yrsSwitch82" reach6'3"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mitrione

This is a genuine toss-up — Schaub at 42% vs Mitrione at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Mitrione has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Schaub's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mitrione has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Schaub
Mitrione
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
+82"
43+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Schaub
Mitrione
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
21.9
49.2
Performance Avg
58.4
46
Quality of Victory
54
39
Momentum Score
82
Schaub
Mitrione
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Schaub
Mitrione
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Schaub
Mitrione
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
30
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/15 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Schaub
Mitrione
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
82
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Schaub
Mitrione
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
89%
3
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Schaub
Mitrione
Striking6.1 / 10.0Volume3.8 / 2.2Grappling2.1 / 0.3Wrestling1.5 / 0.2Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Schaub
Strike Zones
Mitrione
Schaub
Attacking
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Mitrione
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD1BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Schaub targets the head (93% of attacks) — Mitrione absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Mitrione targets the head (57% of attacks) — Schaub absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Schaub
RND
Mitrione
0/0R00/0

Schaub · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0101.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W6.2L1.5L2009-122010-102012-042014-062014-12
WinLossTrend

Mitrione · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L1.5L5.0W1.5L5.0W6.2W5.0W1.5L4.0L2009-122011-062013-092015-062016-01
WinLossTrend

Schaub · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Sub · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 5
Submission
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lavar JohnsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · KO · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04

Mitrione · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Travis BrowneRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
L · Sub · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
W · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · 2014-09
W · KO · R1
Shawn JordanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03

News & Media

Brendan Schaub · Matt Mitrione
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