UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Almeida
42%
Romanov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almeida
This is a genuine toss-up — Almeida at 58% vs Romanov at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Romanov throws more volume but Almeida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Romanov has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Almeida
Romanov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
75"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Almeida
Romanov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
50.5
61.0
Performance Avg
52.6
53
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
70
Almeida
Romanov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.0
64%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Almeida
Romanov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.5
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Almeida
Romanov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/21 fights
Almeida
Romanov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
70
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Almeida
Romanov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
57%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Romanov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.5
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
AlmeidaRomanov
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRomanov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the body (100% of attacks) — Romanov absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Romanov targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Romanov
0/0R00/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Romanov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 5.8Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Romanov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Alexander VolkovRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08