UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2015
Heavyweight
VS
29%
Jordan
71%
Cannonier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cannonier
Cannonier is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jordan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Jordan throws more volume but Cannonier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Jordan's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cannonier has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jordan
Cannonier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+77"
41+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Jordan
Cannonier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.9
54.3
57.5
Performance Avg
49.3
56
Quality of Victory
46
72
Momentum Score
82
Jordan
Cannonier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
56%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
5
1
Body
0
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
8Distance10
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Jordan
Cannonier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jordan
Cannonier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
22
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/27 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Jordan
Cannonier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
82
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
Jordan
Cannonier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
64%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jordan
Cannonier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
JordanCannonier
Strike Zones
Jordan
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedCannonier
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jordan targets the head (83% of attacks) — Cannonier absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Cannonier targets the head (50% of attacks) — Jordan absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jordan
RND
Cannonier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jordan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Cannonier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Jordan · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ruslan MagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
Jared CannonierRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
W · KO · R3
Jack MayRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03
Cannonier · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R4
Gregory RodriguesRating 7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R5
Caio BorralhoRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R4
Nassourdine ImavovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R5
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06