UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Las Vegas, USA
16 Sept 2023
Bantamweight
VS
95%
Jr.
5%
Mitchell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jr.
Jr. is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 64 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jr. has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Mitchell throws more volume but Jr. connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Mitchell has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jr.
Mitchell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
67"
Reach
+74"
21+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jr.
Mitchell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.3
3.4
58.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Jr.
Mitchell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
35%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
5
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance6
1Clinch0
11Ground0
Jr.
Mitchell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jr.
Mitchell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
56
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/13 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Jr.
Mitchell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Jr.
Mitchell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jr.
Mitchell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Jr.Mitchell
Strike Zones
Jr.
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMitchell
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jr. targets the head (94% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Mitchell targets the head (83% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jr.
RND
Mitchell
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Jr. · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Jr. · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 5.7Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
AoriqilengRating 5.3Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R2
Ricky TurciosRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Terrence MitchellRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
Mitchell · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R1
Cameron SaaimanRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07