UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
San Diego, USA
1 Aug 2010
Welterweight
VS
47%
Howard
53%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ellenberger
This is a genuine toss-up — Howard at 47% vs Ellenberger at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Ellenberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Ellenberger throws more volume but Howard connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Howard's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Howard
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Howard
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
15.7
40.1
Performance Avg
45.7
34
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
56
Howard
Ellenberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
57%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
1Clinch1
0Ground1
Howard
Ellenberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Howard
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
0
KO risk
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/37 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Howard
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Howard
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Howard
Ellenberger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
HowardEllenberger
Strike Zones
Howard
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedEllenberger
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Howard targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (83% of attacks) — Howard absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Howard
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
Howard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Howard · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Tim MeansRating 2.8KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 4.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
Lorenz LarkinRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07