UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
San Diego, USA
15 Jul 2015
Lightweight
VS
27%
Thomson
73%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JT
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
22 – 9
5'10"71" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 17
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
Well-Rounded8-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferguson

Ferguson is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thomson
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thomson
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
45.2
45.1
Performance Avg
54.2
47
Quality of Victory
49
43
Momentum Score
52
Thomson
Ferguson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
10
4
Body
7
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
6Distance23
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Thomson
Ferguson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thomson
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
12
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/31 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Thomson
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Thomson
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
1
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thomson
Ferguson
Striking7.5 / 3.3Volume3.5 / 3.4Grappling0.8 / 3.8Wrestling0.6 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure6.0 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Thomson
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Thomson
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD7BODY8LEGS25 absorbed
Ferguson
Attacking
10HEAD7BODY8LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thomson targets the body (57% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (40% of attacks) — Thomson absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thomson
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Thomson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.5W1.5L5.3W5.5L6.2L6.0L2003-092004-082014-012015-07
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Thomson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07
L · Dec · R5
Benson HendersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
W · KO · R2
Nate DiazRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Yves EdwardsRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 49: Unfinished Business · 2004-08

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Josh Thomson · Tony Ferguson
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