METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
San Diego, USA
15 Jul 2015
Lightweight
VS
27%
Thomson
73%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JT
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
22 – 9
5'10"71" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 17
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
Well-Rounded8-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 45
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Josh Thomson · UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Ferguson is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
ThomsonFerguson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thomson
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+76"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thomson
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
45.2
45.1
Performance Avg
54.2
47
Quality of Victory
49
43
Momentum Score
52
Thomson
Ferguson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.5
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
6.1
3.5
Style: Volume
3.4
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
10
4
Body
7
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
6Distance23
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Thomson
Ferguson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thomson
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
12
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/31 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Thomson
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Thomson
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
1
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thomson
Ferguson
Striking7.5 / 3.3Volume3.5 / 3.4Grappling0.8 / 3.8Wrestling0.6 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure6.0 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Thomson
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Thomson
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD7BODY8LEGS25 absorbed
Ferguson
Attacking
10HEAD7BODY8LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thomson targets the body (57% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (40% of attacks) — Thomson absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thomson
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Thomson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tony Ferguson
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
King Green
Decision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07
L · Dec · R5
Benson Henderson
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
W · KO · R2
Nate Diaz
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Yves Edwards
KO/TKO
UFC 49: Unfinished Business · 2004-08

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael Chiesa
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy Pimblett
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King Green
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate Diaz
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael Chandler
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Josh Thomson · Tony Ferguson
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